Why a Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Probably Launch No Later Than January 10

James Seyffart, market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, feel quite certain a spot Bitcoin ETF will launch in the next few months.

First, the SEC decided not to appeal a court’s rejection of Grayscale’s application to convert its bitcoin trust to a spot ETF. Second, there’s been a change in the way the SEC has been treating the many other spot Bitcoin ETF applications—requesting miniscule tweaks in disclosure language. And even though other legal hiccups are occurring—the NY Attorney General’s lawsuit against Grayscale parent company, DCG, the SEC’s potentially renewed vigor in the Ripple case, and Cointelegraph’s incorrect tweet about a bitcoin ETF—the SEC needs a PR win right now. According to them, this means good things not just for spot Bitcoin ETFs but also, shortly thereafter, Ethereum ETFs.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Stitcher, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Show highlights:

• why the SEC did not appeal a decision in the Grayscale case
• whether the NYAG lawsuit against DGC, the parent company of Grayscale, will affect the prospects for GBTC being converted into an ETF
• how likely it is that GBTC will be converted into an ETF and what needs to happen for that to occur
• why the SEC probably wants Grayscale to “completely refile,” according to James
• why the recent changes in the ETF applications are “relatively modest,” according to Matt
• whether the incorrect Cointelegraph tweet about a spot bitcoin ETF will be used by the SEC to bolster its market manipulation argument
• an overview of the deadlines of the different applications
• what happened at the launch of Ethereum futures ETFs and how it was different from the launch of Bitcoin futures ETFs
• whether the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF will pave the way for a spot ether ETF
• what the impact is of all the negative PR for the SEC and Chair Gary Gensler after losing many cases
• what the differences between the various ETFs are and how they will compete in the market
• Lightning round questions: volumes after launch, inflows in the first year, projections for BTC price

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Guests:

• James Seyffart, Research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
  • Previous appearance on Unchained: Why It Looks Like BlackRock Could Win America’s First Spot Bitcoin ETF
• Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise
  • Previous appearances on Unchained:
  • The 2 Types of Investors Driving Interest in Crypto
  • Bitwise’s Latest Plans to Get a Bitcoin ETF Approved

Links

ETFs:

• Previous coverage of Unchained on ETFs:

  • Does Grayscale’s Win Against the SEC Mean a Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Be Approved?
  • Grayscale v. SEC: Who Won This Week’s Hearing?
  • Why Grayscale Is Suing the SEC Over Its Denial of a Bitcoin ETF
  • $5 Billion in AUM: Why Growth at Grayscale Exploded in the Last Quarter
  • Bitwise’s Latest Plans to Get a Bitcoin ETF Approved
  • DCG’s Dilemma: Should It Sell Its GBTC Holdings to Repay Gemini?
• Unchained:
  • Bitcoin Surges to $30K After False Spot ETF Approval Tweet
  • Ethereum Futures ETFs See ‘Average’ First Day Trading Volumes
• Cointelegraph: Clarification on sharing false spot Bitcoin ETF news
• Redeem GBTC 🌽 Campaign

Ripple:

Market manipulation

• CNET: 23-year-old arrested in Emulex hoax

• SEC Charges Avraham Eisenberg with Manipulating Mango Markets’ “Governance Token” to Steal $116 Million of Crypto Assets

NYAG lawsuit:

• NY Attorney General Sues Crypto Firms Gemini, Genesis, and DCG for Over $1 Billion Fraud