This week’s emphatic ruling in favor of Grayscale in its suit against the SEC to convert its massive bitcoin trust into an ETF generated plenty of hopium among the bitcoin faithful that a spot bitcoin ETF will get approved soon and open a flood of investment in bitcoin. What are the odds of that truly happening now, though, and if it did, how much additional money could wind up being invested in bitcoin as a result? Also, which companies’ applications would get approved first and how would the various products compete with one other? Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas separates the hype from the reality in answering these questions and more.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Stitcher, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Show highlights:

  • why Bloomberg increased the likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF being approved this year from 50% to 75%
  • how the ruling exceeded the expectations of the legal analysts at Bloomberg
  • why it’s important that the ruling was a bipartisan decision
  • whether, from a legal perspective, it’s “weird” to deny a spot ETF but approve a futures one
  • how a spot Bitcoin ETF would act as a bridge for Baby boomers to invest in crypto
  • what the two most likely SEC responses to the ruling are
  • what the likely timelines for an SEC spot Bitcoin ETF approval or disapproval would be
  • whether Gary Gensler’s agency will approve Ethereum futures ETFs in the U.S.
  • why BlackRock’s and Fidelity’s ETFs are more likely to be approved first, according to Eric
  • how the different ETFs would compete in the market
  • why spot Bitcoin ETFs pose a serious threat to crypto exchanges’ businesses
  • Eric’s estimate of how much additional money would pour into Bitcoin if a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved

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Read the episode transcript here