Polymarket’s investigators are looking into dozens of recently opened wallets that wagered on Israel’s Oct. 27 election, the company’s investigative team told Bloomberg in a report published Thursday, Oct. 29. Reuters carried a summary of the Bloomberg report later that day.
The election drew heavy betting on the platform. Polymarket’s three main markets on the vote, covering which party wins the most seats, Likud’s seat count and the next prime minister, have together logged about $106.4 million in trading volume, according to Unchained’s review of Polymarket’s own market data on Friday. It was not immediately clear how much of that volume came from the flagged wallets.
According to Bloomberg, some of the accounts involved have together cashed out more than $100,000, and many wallets are still sitting on paper gains. Hundreds of fresh accounts placed the bets shortly before voting ended on Tuesday, backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep his job and Likud to win the most seats. The positions turned profitable after exit polls gave Netanyahu’s party more seats than early reports had suggested.
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Trackers Spot Fresh Wallets on Election Day
Bubblemaps counted 101 Polymarket accounts that received their first funding on election day before voting closed, the onchain analytics firm told Reuters. Polysights, which tracks Polymarket flows, posted on X after polls closed that its tools had caught “massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets” as Netanyahu’s odds climbed, calling it “definitely worth investigating.” Per Bloomberg, both firms consider the activity suspicious and are digging into it.
Bloomberg cautioned that the findings were not conclusive, noting that potential insider trading can be hard to separate from original research or a lucky bet. No trader has been publicly accused of wrongdoing.
As of Friday, Polymarket’s market on which party would win the most seats priced Likud at about 99%, though it had not yet resolved.
What Polymarket’s Rules Allow
Polymarket’s market integrity page says its terms bar trading on stolen confidential information, on illegal tips, or on an event the trader has the power to influence. On enforcement, it states, “We can ban wallets, take legal action, or refer matters to law enforcement when warranted.” The company also says it has “referred 90+ accounts to law enforcement” and works with authorities on open investigations.
The review follows a run of insider-trading cases across prediction markets. In April, federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army master sergeant with using classified intelligence about the Maduro raid to win more than $409,000 on Polymarket. Earlier this month, Kalshi began reviewing three small bets that backed the White House press secretary pick before it was reported, while last month the House Oversight Committee widened its insider trading probe to more platforms.
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