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The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner, expected to be on April 19 or April 20.

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research discuss the rise in Bitcoin prices ahead of the halving, the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and the potential effects of the halving on the price trajectory post-halving. They also discuss the potential impact of a new class of investors on Bitcoin’s price, volatility, and decentralization.

Learn more: Bitcoin Halving: What Is It & How Is It Determined?

Moreover, they dive into the impact of the macroeconomics, geopolitical, and demographic conditions for the crypto asset industry, the potential for L2s on Bitcoin, and their price predictions for bitcoin by year-end.

Show highlights:

  • How the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs altered the price trajectory of BTC before the halving
  • Whether the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs impacts Bitcoin’s decentralization and price volatility
  • Whether this cycle could be the “last cycle” or the “supercycle”
  • Why Arthur predicts a 90% drawdown in the future and how they determine when the markets are nearing the top of the cycle
  • The effect of high inflation, the election, and the termination of the bank term funding program on Bitcoin
  • How artificial intelligence is expected to trigger a productivity boom, according to Will
  • Why Will considers Coinbase to be mispriced
  • Whether Bitcoin L2s have a future and if security budgets are a concern
  • Their views on Bitcoin Ordinals and the Runes Protocol launch
  • Why Will views DOGE as a purer commodity than ETH
  • Arthur’s rebuttal to claims that Ethena could follow in Terra/Luna’s footsteps
  • Arthur’s and Will’s Bitcoin price projections for the end of the year and the cycle

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Episode Transcript


  • Previous appearances on Unchained:


This cycle

Bitcoin ETFs:

Macroeconomic conditions

Block size wars

Bitcoin L2s