Arthur Hayes, cofounder of BitMex, discusses how he’s trading the Merge, the impact of macroeconomic policy in the markets, his career as a writer, and much more. 

Show highlights:

  • how crypto is reconfiguring how humans do finance over the internet
  • why Arthur initially thought Ethereum was worthless 
  • how NFTs allow users to trade human culture and will unlock trillions of dollars of value
  • why Ethereum doesn’t even need to be deflationary
  • whether other layer 1s can take some market cap from Ethereum
  • why Arthur thinks that a successful Merge is understated and why this is a valid reason for hedging
  • why he thinks an Ethereum proof of work chain won’t succeed and how Arthur will trade ETHPoW
  • why LDO, Lido’s token, is a riskier bet but has more potential gains
  • how he believes the Shanghai upgrade will impact ETH’s price
  • whether the Merge affects BTC’s narrative as digital gold and whether the inflation hedge theory of Bitcoin still holds
  • why Bitcoin is a measure of USD liquidity and why the Fed rates don’t matter as much as everyone thinks
  • whether hedge funds and institutional investors would want to invest in crypto given the high correlation with traditional markets
  • what Arthur believes the impact of a potential US recession would be on the crypto markets 
  • why he believes the real economy is not relevant to the financial markets
  • whether algorithmic stablecoins are doomed to fail
  • how the credit cycle works and how it repeats again and again
  • Arthur’s method for identifying good projects to invest in
  • how Arthur became such a good writer
  • whether BTC is money and the religious aspect of the Bitcoin culture


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Previous Coverage on Unchained:

Arthur’s posts discussed during the show:


ETH Trade:

ETH Post-Merge Dynamics:


Read the episode transcript here