Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on How This Bitcoin Halving Is Different

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The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner, expected to be on April 19 or April 20.

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research discuss the rise in Bitcoin prices ahead of the halving, the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and the potential effects of the halving on the price trajectory post-halving. They also discuss the potential impact of a new class of investors on Bitcoin’s price, volatility, and decentralization.

Learn more: Bitcoin Halving: What Is It & How Is It Determined?

Moreover, they dive into the impact of the macroeconomics, geopolitical, and demographic conditions for the crypto asset industry, the potential for L2s on Bitcoin, and their price predictions for bitcoin by year-end.

Show highlights:

• How the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs altered the price trajectory of BTC before the halving
• Whether the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs impacts Bitcoin’s decentralization and price volatility
• Whether this cycle could be the “last cycle” or the “supercycle”
• Why Arthur predicts a 90% drawdown in the future and how they determine when the markets are nearing the top of the cycle
• The effect of high inflation, the election, and the termination of the bank term funding program on Bitcoin
• How artificial intelligence is expected to trigger a productivity boom, according to Will
• Why Will considers Coinbase to be mispriced
• Whether Bitcoin L2s have a future and if security budgets are a concern
• Their views on Bitcoin Ordinals and the Runes Protocol launch
• Why Will views DOGE as a purer commodity than ETH
• Arthur’s rebuttal to claims that Ethena could follow in Terra/Luna’s footsteps
• Arthur’s and Will’s Bitcoin price projections for the end of the year and the cycle

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Episode Transcript

Guest:

• Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom.

• Previous appearances on Unchained:

• • Arthur Hayes on Why Bitcoin Is Money and ETH Is a Shitcoin He Loves
  • Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH 
  • Arthur Hayes of Bitmex on Why Countries Will Turn to Digital
  • The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes on Why Crypto Needs to Ditch the Banks
  • How Crypto and Blockchain Technology Could Change Financial Services

• Will Clemente, Co-founder of Reflexivity Research
  • Previous appearance on Unchained: Strong Hands Aren’t Selling Bitcoin. So Who Is? 

Links

This cycle

• Naval’s tweet: “The narrative for this cycle is ‘this is the last cycle.’”
• Unchained:
  • Here’s Why No One Agrees Exactly When The Bitcoin Halving Will Happen
  • Bitcoin Miners Diversify Their Revenue Streams as Halving Nears
• Heatwave by Arthur Hayes
• Dissecting Bitcoin’s “4 Year Cycle,” guest post by Will Clemente on The Pomp Letter

Bitcoin ETFs:

• Unchained:
  • The Best Spot Bitcoin ETFs for Different Types of Investors
  • Who Is Buying Into Spot Bitcoin ETFs? We’ll Soon Start to Get an Idea
  • Bitcoin ETFs Explained: What Are They & How Do They Work? 

Macroeconomic conditions

• CNBC: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected
• FT: Investors lose hope of rapid US interest rate cuts this year

Block size wars

• Bloomberg: The Block War Is Still a Sore Subject for ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ 

Bitcoin L2s

• Unchained: Stacks’ Muneeb Ali On Why Bitcoin Is Exciting Once Again 

Runes

• Decrypt: Bitcoin Runes Launch at the Halving: Here’s Everything You Need to Know

Ethena

• Hayes’ tweet on Ethena
• Unchained:
  • ENA Surges 20% to New All-Time High as Ethena Rolls Out Reward Boosts
  • Ethena’s USDe Grew to $2 Billion in 7 Weeks. Is It Safe?
  • What Is Ethena’s USDe Synethic Dollar?