The Harris-Trump Debate: Will the Candidates Discuss Crypto?

On Tuesday night, presidential hopefuls Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will face off in a hugely-anticipated televised debate, their first and perhaps only one. Don’t expect them to talk much about crypto, though.

According to Ron Hammond, the Director of Government Relations at the Blockchain Association, there’s little pressure on either candidate to define their policy views, as crypto isn’t a top election issue for most voters. Further, former president Donald Trump’s statements that he wants to make the United States the “world capital” for bitcoin is likely enough to shore up support for him amongst major donors and the small number of single-issue voters, particularly compared with the lack of substantive support for the crypto industry evinced so far by Vice President Kamala Harris.

“This is a presidential campaign,” said Hammond. “There are other policy issues that [Trump and Harris] are clearly winning or losing the narrative on” that will draw more focus leading up to the November election, Hammond noted.

Indeed, bettors on predictions market Polymarket are putting the odds of Trump mentioning the word “crypto” during the debate at just 14%, which is lower than the odds of him saying the word “aliens” more than five times (19%).

The debate will be hosted by ABC at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday and will be broadcast on ABC and also streamed online. Because a second presidential debate has not been scheduled, it may be the candidates’ last opportunity to clarify their differences on major issues important to American voters face-to-face.

Top Issues for Voters

According to a June poll conducted by Grayscale and Harris Polls (no relation to Kamala Harris), the January approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and the April 2024 halving have made voters more interested in investing in crypto assets (18% and 20% of voters, respectively). Meanwhile, 47% of respondents expected bitcoin to be in their investment portfolio, up from 40% last year, and a near equal number of Republicans and Democrats said they owned crypto — 18% and 19%, respectively.

But crypto still doesn’t appear to be at the top of the agenda. “While crypto is certainly a hot-button issue during this election, it’s not on the same level as, say, immigration or inflation,” said Rebecca Liao, CEO of Saga and past advisor to President Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. “The economy in particular will likely be front and center of the debate.”

A recent poll conducted in early August by The Economist and YouGov didn’t even list crypto as an potential answer to questions about voters top priorities, indicating the pollsters didn’t even consider it important. Instead, 97% of voters across both parties indicated inflation and prices were a priority, followed by jobs and the economy (96%), taxes and government spending (94%) and national security (92%).

Trump has said on several occasions that he wants the United States to be a “world leader” in crypto, and also spoke in support of bitcoin mining at Bitcoin 2024 in July. In response, mega donors in the industry have written large checks, with the Trump campaign raising over $3 million from the crypto sector in the second quarter. Some of the largest donors included Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who have together donated $1.6 million in bitcoin, as well as Kraken founder Jesse Powell, donating $845,000 in ether.

Harris, meanwhile, has said little about cryptocurrency, making no mention of the industry at the Democratic National Convention or in her released list of policy positions. But that doesn’t mean she hasn’t found support from other industry heavyweights, including Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, members of a group called Crypto4Harris.

What the Election Means for Crypto Prices

Even if their stances on cryptocurrency aren’t ultimately that consequential for Trump or Harris’ electoral prospects, that doesn’t mean the election won’t have a big impact on cryptocurrency prices, given the regulatory issues at stake.

Wall Street sell-side research firm AB Bernstein predicted in a report released on Monday that bitcoin’s price could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000 by the end of Q4 if Trump wins the presidency, while potentially declining to between $30,000 and $40,000 if Harris wins.

The firm cited regulatory action as the primary reason, identifying the current Biden-Harris administration as hostile to crypto based on measures taken against major industry players such as Coinbase and Uniswap. A Harris win risks the same regulatory hostility, the report said, while a Trump administration would likely ease regulatory tensions, the report says. (One of the report’s authors, Gautam Chhugani, has long positions in bitcoin).

But while Bernstein concluded that the upcoming election could “determine the destiny of the [crypto] industry,” it seems unlikely that crypto will play a meaningful role in who wins the election in the first place.