How the Halving Is Expected to Impact Bitcoin ETF Flows

Inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs have recently been declining and even turned negative at times, with $165 million collectively being pulled out of them on Thursday. This comes after investors bought into ETFs heavily in mid-March, with the sector notching multiple daily inflows north of $1 billion.

But some are wondering what impact the latest halving, when rewards for mining blocks will be slashed in half, will have on demand for the spot ETFs, which were first approved on Jan. 10 and now command $54.1 billion in assets under management, according to CoinGlass data.

In the past, bitcoin’s halvings have typically led to the price of bitcoin hitting all-time highs within several months, in part due to the reduced rate of new supply of bitcoin. Bitcoin reaching new price highs would usually lead to increased demand.

But Rune Bentien, general partner of Lyrik Ventures, said things could be different this time.

“The previous halvings have been in completely different [macro] environments, yet many seem to have forecasted a trajectory for this halving mirroring the previous ones,” Bentien, who invests in bitcoin projects, wrote in a Telegram message to Unchained.

First of all, there’s a chance bitcoin’s price doesn’t ratchet up after the halving because of sizable price gains already achieved due to strong inflows into the ETFs.

But downturns in the price of BTC don’t appear to have had an outsized influence on ETF outflows in the past, according to a research note this week to clients and counterparties from Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research.

If the trend holds, it could have implications for after the halving, which tends to produce volatility from sellers locking in gains.

“Aside from a few small outflows likely related to broader portfolio rebalancing, the only notable outflows continue to be from GBTC,” Thorn wrote. “There’s no guarantee, but I think ETF buyers are also going to trend hodl and mostly contribute to the long-termness of bitcoin supply.”

Bentien also predicted that the consistently strong interest in US ETFs overall, coupled with elevated interest in BTC because of the halving, could over time lead to an explosion in demand for bitcoin ETFs.

“Mainly due to the halving, I believe that the BTC ETF within the next 12 months will be the most successful ETF [sector] (in terms of growth in trading volume and total AUM) the world has seen,” he wrote.