Crypto’s super PACs backed the winning side in 28 of the 30 House races they spent on that NBC News had projected by 1:22 p.m. ET Wednesday, but in just one of four Senate races, according to an Unchained tally of their Federal Election Commission filings. Of the $89.5 million they spent on projected races, $21.9 million, or 24.4%, was on the winning side.
The tally counts independent expenditures disseminated since Sept. 1 by four PACs, in 24- and 48-hour reports filed with the FEC as of 1:13 p.m. ET Nov. 4. Reports for spending from Nov. 1 to 3 may still post. That window holds $90.22 million across 36 races, four for the Senate and 32 for the House, out of $169.99 million those four and Fellowship PAC reported for the full cycle. NBC had not projected two of the races: Rep. David Rouzer’s in North Carolina and Rep. Aisha Wahab’s in California.
Reuters reported a separate tally for Fairshake on Wednesday: 29 wins in the 34 races where it spent money, with several still uncalled. Unchained’s count scores all four PACs’ fall spending against NBC’s projections.
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Ohio Holds Most of the Money
The Ohio special Senate race drew $64.05 million, or 71% of the window money. Defend American Jobs reported spending to support Republican Sen. Jon Husted and oppose Democrat Sherrod Brown, as did Digital Freedom Fund, and NBC projected Brown the winner. Ohio makes up 94.7% of the $67.66 million spent on losing sides. Our earlier story covered Brown’s win.
Defend American Jobs spent $13.48 million against independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, where NBC projected Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts the winner. Digital Freedom Fund went 0 for 3, also opposing Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Josh Turek in Iowa, both projected winners.
After the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate in September, The Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said on Unchained that Democrats who did not plan to vote yes wanted the vote delayed, because “you’re probably a little nervous and hesitant about what the PAC money can do to your race if you’re up for election.”
Two of Fairshake’s $1 Million Incumbents Lose
Fairshake spent about $1 million in October on each of six incumbents who voted for the Clarity Act in 2025. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) lost to Democrat Mitchell Berman, and Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) lost to Democrat Sean McCann. House Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) was projected the winner by 1.8 points.
By PAC, Protect Progress went 9 for 9, Defend American Jobs 16 for 17, Fairshake 4 for 6 and Digital Freedom Fund 0 for 3. NBC projects Democratic control of the House, with 238 seats to 146 and 51 uncalled, and has Democrats at 54 Senate seats to 44, with two uncalled.
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