The price of bitcoin spiked 5% to as high as $71,500 Tuesday evening ET as former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the key swing states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin improved.
On predictions market Polymarket, the probability of Trump winning Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes, over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris increased from 68% to 79% over the last two hours, and from 54% to 58% to win Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. The overall odds on Polymarket of Trump winning the presidency have increased from 58% to 70% in the past hour.
On rival platform Kalshi, Trump’s chances of winning Wisconsin’s 10 electoral college votes have increased from 42% at the start of the day to 57% currently, while Harris’ odds have decreased to 45% from 58% over the same period.
Trump has positioned himself as the pro-crypto candidate, promising to quickly replace deeply unpopular SEC chair Gary Gensler, as well as set up a US government bitcoin reserve fund.
With BTC moving past $71,000, “it’s got a good shot at all-time highs in about another 24 hours,” said Jim Hwang, the COO of Firinne Capital. “On the downside, there’s a lot of positions to be taken out a little bit at a time, but the [key level to watch out for] is if [BTC] falls below around $67,500 and definitely below $67,300.”
Bitcoin’s all-time high of $73,798 was reached earlier this year on March 14.
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As of press time, the Associated Press, CNN, and Fox News were all reporting that Trump was leading Harris in electoral college votes amassed in the races that have been called so far.
“Similar to the $BTC and $DJT price rally alongside Trump’s surge on Polymarket last month, we anticipate that crypto markets’ short-term trajectory will closely track the success or failure of Trump as early voting results are released tonight,” Omer Goldberg, founder and CEO of risk management firm Chaos Labs, wrote in a Telegram message. “If that lead materializes tonight, we expect to see similar price movements throughout the night. DeFi protocols should prepare for some market volatility.”
Before its latest upswing, BTC experienced a handful of 2% swings in price in both directions on Tuesday, ranging between as low as $67,500 and as high as $70,600 on Coinbase, according to markets platform CryptoWatch.
Like many market observers, Firinne’s Hwang is optimistic about bitcoin’s longer-term, post-election prospects no matter who wins. “We think that the election, regardless of the outcome, is going to be positive for the market, because I think institutions and regulators are aware that crypto assets are here to stay, especially the ones that are really building out the infrastructure,” he said.
Total BTC open interest has increased 47% to $33 billion in the last 24 hours to a seven-month high, revealing substantial investor interest in trading the digital asset. Open interest refers to the amount of outstanding derivative contracts that haven’t been settled.
