Since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, sovereign nations have parked their export surpluses in US treasuries and dollar assets as a form of insurance. The Iran war is breaking that logic.

Arthur Hayes explains why: when Australia ran out of jet fuel and the prime minister had to fly to Singapore to beg for it, the lesson was stark. Dollars don’t buy physical things when the strait is closed. Nations that built their reserves in dollar assets rather than infrastructure and commodity stockpiles are now questioning that trade.

Hayes argues this creates a structural, secular decline in demand for US treasuries — and that the Fed will ultimately have to print to absorb it. That’s the core of his bull case for Bitcoin and hard assets.

This clip is from a longer conversation on war, AI, and the bull market thesis. Full episode here: https://youtube.com/live/gP81Xze6Gh4

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