Traders have pushed bitcoin open interest to $37.63 billion ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The surge in derivatives positions reflects widespread expectations that policymakers will announce another quarter-point rate cut.

Bitcoin climbed from $107,600 last week to just above $116,000, with the rally accompanied by open interest growth from $33 billion. The Federal Reserve meeting has become a focal point for crypto investors anticipating a 25-basis-point reduction to the 4.00-4.25% range.

This story is an excerpt from the Unchained Daily newsletter.

Users on prediction market Myriad have assigned a 92.6% probability to this outcome. Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget, noted markets have already priced in the expected rate cut. She projects bitcoin could reach $118,000 to $120,000 by month’s end if the asset maintains support above $112,000, though she cautioned that leverage-driven volatility remains a significant risk factor.